Learn
Near Miss Lottery: Why "Almost Won" Means Nothing
An almost won lottery ticket feels close, but it is not. See how often a Lotto Max selection matches 6 of 7 compared with 7 of 7, and why that changes nothing.
Loading the simulator
One away vs all seven
6 of 7 on one selection
1 in 424,713Odds that one selection matches exactly six of the seven main numbers, with or without the bonus number.
Near misses per jackpot
about 315For every selection that matches all seven main numbers, about 315 selections match exactly six, with or without the bonus.
Every prize tier
Official odds per play and per selection for each Lotto Max tier.
Why one away happens so often
- Seven numbers are drawnEach draw picks seven main numbers and one bonus number from the same pool.
- One way to match allA selection matches all seven only if it is exactly the drawn set. There is only one such set.
- Many ways to missSix of the seven main numbers plus one non-main number – the bonus or any other – is a near miss. There are 315 such sets.
- The resultAbout 315 selections end up one away for each one that matches all seven.
Kinds of near miss
| Near miss | What happened | Change to next draw |
|---|---|---|
| 6 of 7 + bonus | Six main numbers plus the bonus number | None |
| 6 of 7 | Six main numbers, one main number missed | None |
| Right number, wrong line | A drawn number was on another selection | None |
| Neighbour number | You had a number next to a drawn one | None |
| Last draw's numbers | Your numbers came up before, not now | None |
6 of 7 and 6 of 7 + bonus are prize tiers and pay a share of their pool. The other kinds pay nothing.
Feels close vs is close
How it feels
- Six numbers match – only one is missing
- The missing number was right next to mine
- The next draw should be closer
- The gap to the jackpot looks small
What the math says
- 6 of 7, bonus or not: about 315 times more common than 7 of 7
- A number next to yours is just another label
- The next draw ignores all past results
- Every combination has the same chance every draw
Words used here
- Near miss
- A result that looks close to the jackpot, like matching six of the seven main numbers.
- Selection
- One line of seven numbers on a Lotto Max ticket.
- Play
- A group of four selections bought together for one draw.
- Main numbers
- The seven numbers drawn first. Matching all of them wins the Main Jackpot tier.
- Bonus number
- An extra number drawn after the main numbers. It only counts in tiers marked + bonus.
Sources
- OLG – Lotto Max Game Conditions · checked Oct 29, 2026
- WCLC – Lotto Max Game Conditions, in effect 2026-04-10 · checked Oct 29, 2026
- OLG – Conditions de jeu du Lotto Max · checked Oct 29, 2026
- Loto-Québec – Conditions de jeu du Lotto Max, en vigueur le 2026-04-10 · checked Oct 29, 2026
Questions
Does almost winning the lottery mean you are close to winning?
No. A 6 of 7 means your selection matched six numbers in that draw only. The next draw is new and random, and your chance of matching all seven is the same as before.
How often does 6 of 7 happen in Lotto Max?
On one selection, the odds of matching exactly six main numbers, with or without the bonus, are 1 in 424,713. That happens about 315 times more often than matching all seven.
Why do near misses feel so close?
Six matching numbers make the gap look like one small step. But there are many ways to miss by one and only one way to match all seven, so near misses are common and mean nothing.
Does a 6 of 7 in Lotto Max still pay a prize?
Yes. Under the Lotto Max game conditions, 6 of 7 and 6 of 7 + bonus are prize tiers. Each pays a share of its own pool, divided among the winners of that tier.